The U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials are the equivalent of the Super Bowl for American distance running fans. This year, the Trials are taking place in Atlanta on Saturday, February 29th. The men go off at 12:08 pm and the women start soon after at 12:20 pm. The course involves three 8 mile loops with a 2 mile diversion from the loop to the finish. The top three from each event, no matter who they are or their resume beforehand, will represent the U.S. at the Olympic games in Tokyo.
Everyone who has been on the Atlanta course or studied the elevation maps will tell you how hilly and tough this course will be for runners. Over 400 women and 200 men qualified for the event. An incredibly impressive feat in itself, this will be the “Olympics” for many of these runners as only about 10-20 competitors on each side have a realistic shot of finishing in the top 3 and making the team. I will definitely be rooting for some locals who I know as well: Crystal Bacon, Siobhan O’Connor, and Jeff Seelaus.
I am a big distance running fan and follow the sport closely, following many pros on Strava (social media app for endurance activities e.g. running), listening to multiple running-focused podcasts, and reading LetsRun boards on occasion. Runners put their hearts and souls into training and preparing for this race. Below are the runners who I believe will finish in the top 10, but based on the course, I imagine there will be surprises. I recognize my predictions don’t mean much, but I enjoy doing things like this and hope you do as well. Thanks for the read!
Top 10 Men:
1) Galen Rupp
One of the best American distance runners of all time, if not the most talented. There is a lot of controversy surrounding his old coach, but I love his new coach, Mike Smith, so I’ll be rooting for Rupp.
2) Jared Ward
Arguably the most consistent runner in the field, Ward is such a smart runner who may have the highest probability of making the team.
3) Leonard Korir
Incredibly talented with an amazing 2:07 first marathon in Amsterdam. Only one marathon run raises some questions, though.
4) Scott Fauble
A 2:09 in Boston combined with an honest and funny personality make Fauble a fan-favorite. He will run his heart out, but has not run a great race in a while.
5) Scott Smith
The other Scott on NAZ Elite, I will be rooting hard for Scott Smith, who is certainly a wildcard. I think he is in his prime at 33 years old and he will be ready to roll side by side with his teammate.
6) Jim Walmsley
The most interesting darkhorse in my opinion. The best ultrarunner in the US, he enters the race with a unique background and training regimen. If he is in the race with a few miles to go, he has a great shot.
7) Bernard Lagat
45 years old. A 5 time Olympian. No matter how he runs, all the respect. The fact he is competitive at this age in the marathon is quite remarkable.
8) Dathan Ritzenheim
Similar to Lagat, an older legend at 37 years old. Injury problems have plagued him for a while, but he is still an amazing runner who will likely run with the front group almost the whole way.
9) CJ Albertson
A mileage junkie who will be looking to surprise a lot of people. He ran a training run over the marathon distance and came through the 26.2 miles under 2:16. Using a unique training approach, he will be someone to watch for on the difficult course.
10) Brogan Austin
A member of the Tinman Elite who trains remotely in Iowa, Austin surprised everyone last year winning CIM. He was one of fourteen American men to run under 62 minutes at the Houston Half Marathon.
Top 10 Women:
1) Sara Hall
Training under her husband, Olympic marathoner Ryan Hall, I think she will run similar to his front-running style and get after things, not allowing a slow pace if other runners try that early on in the race. Many would disagree with this pick, but I think her consistent improvement will give her the needed confidence.
2) Molly Huddle
Yet to run her standout marathon, Huddle is a well celebrated American distance legend who will use her experience to her advantage.
3) Kellyn Taylor
I really enjoy following NAZ Elite and I think Taylor’s marathon experience and toughness will get her third place on this tough course.
4) Emily Sisson
Perhaps the favorite, I think her limited marathon experience-only one, albeit an amazing 2:23 in London-will hurt her as the race gets challenging toward the end.
5) Des Linden
I will not be surprised if Des ends up winning this race, just like she won Boston. However, I happen to think other runners will have their special day in Atlanta.
6) Jordan Hasay
Other than Sisson, she is likely the favorite. Similar to Rupp, she lost her old coach, but she may be the most talented runner in the field. I think the challenging course will hurt her, though. I’m hoping she finishes the race, even if she is not in contention at the very end.
7) Stephanie Bruce
Another NAZ Elite runner, I expect Steph to put herself in a position to compete. She has gotten continuously better with time and shows a ton of grit.
8) Aliphine Tuliamuk
The final NAZ Elite woman in the race, I’m hoping to see Aliphine, Kellyn, and Steph run right up at the front from the gun.
9) Emma Bates
An impressive runner with an interesting story, she is a bit younger and very talented. I think she will run well, but her time is yet to come for the Olympics.
10) Sally Kipyego
An older legend who I admittedly only recently heard of, she has a great story and I am intrigued to watch her compete.
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